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The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has sounded an alarm about the growing risk of inflation as climate change increasingly affects global food production.
Unusually wet weather in England has resulted in poor harvests, adding to the already strained global food supply chain. Meanwhile, extreme heatwaves across other parts of the world, such as southern Europe and North America, have led to significant crop failures.
These climate-driven disruptions are expected to reduce the availability of key food products, thereby pushing prices up in supermarkets across the UK.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, has stressed that these environmental challenges are exacerbated by rising geopolitical tensions. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, for example, has already disrupted grain exports, leading to increased prices in international markets.
With climate change further squeezing agricultural output, the cumulative effect could be a new wave of inflation, impacting the cost of living for British households.
In addition to climate and geopolitical factors, retailers are also grappling with new regulatory costs, such as increased business rates and post-Brexit border checks on EU imports. These costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, compounding the inflationary pressures.
Despite efforts by retailers to keep prices down—particularly through promotions and discounts—these efforts may not be enough to counterbalance the rising costs driven by external factors.
The BRC's warning comes at a time when the UK is experiencing a slight easing in inflation rates. However, this reprieve may be short-lived if the predicted inflationary pressures materialise.
The possibility of renewed inflation underscores the need for comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of these issues, particularly the impacts of climate change on food production. Failure to do so could lead to sustained increases in food prices, making it increasingly difficult for consumers to afford basic necessities.
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